For the semiconductor industry in 2023, Kazuhiro said that we are facing a severe situation and can be said to be patient.The market size may decrease by about 10%compared to 2022.From the perspective of each quarter, the market size has been negative for five consecutive quarters since the first quarter of 2022, and in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period of the previous year to about 75%.According to the financial results of the 2023 quarterly, the sales of IDM and the WAiline Factory have decreased compared with the previous quarter.Overall, a decrease of 9.2%.He said that the semiconductor market has continued to grow for a long time, despite its ups and downs.In the past, even if the market deteriorated, it would recover in about a year, but the recovery is now postponed.The situation of negative growth in the future may continue, and the trend of contraction will continue for two years.
    2023 Semiconductor Market Source: OMDIA
    Kazuhiro pointed out that the background of the semiconductor industry market atrophy is the correlation with GDP (GDP).In order to comply with market trends, it is necessary to pay close attention to the macroeconomic trend, he said.Economic instability and high price are unfavorable factor,smart phoneThe demand for consumer equipment is declining, which has a negative impact on semiconductor sales.
    Despite the unfavorable factors in the industry, some companies still perform well.In the fiscal quarter of 2024 (February-April 2023), the GPU sales of NVIDIA used to generate AI reached US $ 7.19 billion, an increase of 19%month-on-month.Mr. Sugiyama analyzes that the demand for generating AI is huge, and NVIDIA seems to have no competitors.We expect strong performance to last for a while.
    For the semiconductor market after 2024, he said that the economy will recover in 2024 and the demand for the semiconductor market will also be restored.
    power supplyIC continues shortage
    For the continuous semiconductor shortage in the past few years, Kazuhiro said that it is expected that all advanced nodes (14nm and above), mature nodes (28-90nm) and traditional nodes (110nm and above) will be eliminated.Almost solved.However, while the demand for advanced nodes has risen, the operating rate of the production line is declining, and a shortage is expected to occur in the future.At present, the supply and demand balance of mature nodes is balanced, but due to the capital investment brought by the new crisis crisis, there may be situations that are too required in the future.Due to the limited capital investment of the retention nodes and lack of increased manufacturing capabilities, it is expected that some shortage will continue.After 2024, carbon neutralization may increase, and the sense of shortage is strong again.
    The current status of a semiconductor shortage divided by the craft node  
    The demand Chinese market, the government and business of enterprises in various countries are separated
    divided by regional, the United States accounts for about 40%of global semiconductor consumption (the number of semiconductors purchased by manufacturers).The second China is about 20%, and the third in Japan is more than 10%.For the United States, Kazuhiro said that due to the strong US dollar, American consumption did not cool down.Compared with 2022, China's consumption is expected to decline, but intelligentcell phoneThe demand is said to be strong.In Japan, consumption in 2022 has begun to decline, and it is expected that further decline in 2023.The demand for automobiles and industrial applications is high.
   serverIn the market, there are many shipping destinations in the United States, followed by the Asia -Pacific region.From the perspective of the size of the bases in various regions, the United States is by far, followed by China.Kazuhiro said that even in the data center server market, the United States and China are the big markets.
    The United States and China continue to have differences in politics, but even in this case, companies between the two countries are eager for business in the Chinese market.Kazuhiro explained: American companies such as Intel, Tesla, Apple, and application materials are actively talking to Chinese senior managers to promote their business.Germany, the Netherlands and France are doing this.Talking about how to compete in the huge Chinese market, he said that enterprises in each country are acting separately between politics and business.
    PC market will recover in the second half of 2023, and the smartphone market will start at the end of 2023
    Kazuhiro also explained the semiconductor market forecast divided by application.From the perspective of applications, the atrophy of the smartphone semiconductor market is expected to last until the second half of 2023.Kazuhiro said: In the first half of 2022, despite the decline in the shipments of smartphones, the sales of semiconductors for smartphones increased year -on -year.At present, we are avoiding the purchase of semiconductors to make up, but with the launch of new smartphone products, semiconductor sales are expected to gradually recover in the fourth quarter of 2023.Regarding the long -term trend of smartphone shipments, he said that after reaching the peak of 1.4 billion units in 2017, it gradually declined.The reason is the expansion of the maintenance business.China, Asia, and Oceania are a huge transport market, and it is important to ensure how to ensure the security of these markets.
    smartphone market trend and forecast source source: OMDIA
   computerWith the semiconductor of the data center, Kazuhiro said that although the degree of deterioration of the personal computer market is more serious than smartphones, the semiconductor inventory we accumulated is not as many as smartphones.It is coming, he predicts.It is expected that the laptop computer purchased during the new crisis will begin to be replaced.The demand for data centers is strong and expected to grow in the future, but manufacturers are currently exhausted their accumulated semiconductor inventory.Semiconductor sales are expected to be resumed from the end of 2023, but the overall increase in negative growth in 2023 is expected to occur in 2022.
    PC market trend and forecast