Starting from military application, the semiconductor industry has always been the foundation of all social development, and everything that is exponentially growing depends on semiconductors.
This is not a mild industry.It can not be sold for more than two years, either supplies too much or not at all.The scarcity of semiconductors can kill the company faster than anything else, and purchasing components at the wrong price may cause products to be unable to sell.
Although the supply channels in the industry are extremely complicated, they are also the key to understanding what is happening.The change in the supply network will cause ripples to move back and forth in the network.Due to these spreads, you can predict what will happen in other areas of the supply network, and you can foresee the future.
What is the problem in all strategic formulation?We make a living by analyzing the industry and its supply chain and provide customers with strategic investment.
Of course, you can participate in an investor conference call with all stock analysts to listen to the charm and extraordinary profit committee (CEO) telling you what happened!We are still answering the phone, but we know that everyone has spent a good quarter and gets market share.We check the nonsense by analysis.It is not always correct, but it is always neutral and independent.
All semiconductor companies have an excellent quarterly and received market share!
No -it does not start with a grain of sand!It starts with a device.Some equipment is more advanced and developed than any other artificial objects.They exist in the Nordic University Town silently and now become important assets in the geopolitical game of China and the Western world.
This makes the analysis of the semiconductor equipment market one of the exciting things we have done.
　Key enterprise in the equipment market
In contrast to all the noise of semiconductor subsidies, donations, and all the noise construction of new factories, the income of equipment has not increased.This does not mean that it will not happen, it just means that it is unexpected.In addition, the United States is trying to recapture the domineering position of logical node chip manufacturing; you should expect ASML to grow, which provides the industry's optical equipment for the industry.
The current situation is exactly the opposite. ASML's income has dropped by nearly 30%, while its competitors Tokyo Electronics increased by 17%.
The leading deposit company AMAT has re -became a equipment company in the 2024 quarter, accounting for 23% of the market share.
Although the "Chip Act" and subsidies will undoubtedly affect the sales of equipment, it has not yet happened.The goal of subsidies is independent of China, whether military or economical.Nevertheless, when Western countries distribute money, the Chinese did not stand by.
Since the signing of the "Chip Act" in the United States, the overall equipment sales have declined, and the sales of Chinese equipment have increased.Nearly 45% of the equipment sold by Western equipment manufacturers is currently purchased by China.
The "Chip Act" has a significant impact on equipment sales, although the impact is not expected.The sales of equipment in the United States, Taiwan and South Korea have declined significantly, while China's demand for Western semiconductor equipment has increased.
It is estimated that 75% of all capital expenditure (Capex) related to the construction of the wafer plant are equipment expenditures, of which the optical carved equipment accounts for costs.
The following is an overview of the capital expenditure of the owner of the large semiconductor factory.After the "Chip Act" was signed, capital expenditure exceeded $ 4 billion per quarter, but has been declining since then.It is not surprising that equipment income changes with the development of capital expenditure, but there are two interesting deviations:
1. Over time, the share of equipment in capital expenditure is getting bigger and bigger
2. Unless the Chip Act signed.
There is no doubt that the "Chip Act" and other subsidies have promoted this change, but have not developed in the expected direction.We are not trying to imply that the "Chip Act" will not have a significant impact on the US semiconductor industry, but just say that it may have some unexpected side effects.
First of all, the "Chip Act" changed the timing of semiconductor investment and also affected the location of semiconductor investment.
Secondly, it changes the way of capital expenditure.After great simplification, the semiconductor factory will spend a large amount of funds on four activities:
Due to the fragile and aging speed of semiconductor equipment, a large amount of capital expenditure is used to maintain and change one -to -one to prevent the production capacity from declining.Memory companies failed to do this during their economic downturn.
At present, the semiconductor factory owner has reduced the priority of upgrading the existing factories to obtain subsidies.The U.S. government and others want you to put your large box in their backyard to visit the candy can.
At present, there are sufficient capacity and logical nodes outside the memory, but we are in the early stage of the semiconductor cycle.We are modifying the supply and demand equation, which may have a huge impact on the entire industry.Soon, we will be restricted by capacity, and this will not establish capacity by upgrading activities.With the potential artificial intelligence upgrade cycle of personal computers and smartphones, it may become annoying.
Suddenly, all subsidy capacity will be launched in early 2026, thereby creating a potential mother of semiconductor cycle.
　But what about China?
All these money spending to prevent China's attempts from leading the semiconductor industry.Since the Chinese authorities have learned that the value is not assembly but locked in the semiconductor of assembly, this situation has occurred for decades.A lot of investment has been made, but it turns out that it is more difficult than expected.
With the intensification of geopolitical tensions, the Chinese authorities will focus on the construction of semiconductor manufacturing capabilities to investing in semiconductor equipment because the equipment is embarked down.
Although the Chinese semiconductor equipment industry is small compared with Western manufacturers, its compound annual growth rate increased at nearly 50% of the amazing speed, until the first quarter of 2023 reached more than $ 2 billion.
The growth of growth in 2024 -a decline of 21.9% exceeded the scope that can be explained by the Lunar New Year.It can be seen through comparison of this year's holiday impact and the situation last year.
It seems to be blocked by the supply chain.Fortunately, our small number box can add fun to the discussion.
Chinese equipment manufacturers have grown rapidly, but they have also accumulated a lot of inventory.
The inventory of nearly three years is of great significance, especially in the case of demand collapse.
Through the statistics of production units, we can understand the demand in China.It can be seen that the growth rate of most important semiconductor products is not as good as before.Overall, they are the same as last year.
Except for semiconductor manufacturing.It increased by 44.6%compared to a year ago, and the supply market was almost the same.
The Chinese people with a large number of cheap products to the Western market are not because they are willing, but because they can't help it.
China is already fighting tariffs, and the Biden government has made tariffs worse this week.Semiconductor tariffs will increase from 25%to 50%, and electric vehicles will be levied 100%tariffs.This will not make China's excess supply easier.
As you can see, there are many things in the market, and it is difficult to accurately predict which strategic decisions will be proven to be correct.We will continue to monitor all channels and find the truth.