Original Nakayama Sato Cordon 2023-03-16 09:00 Published onShanghai
Includes a collection#Chip market
Dashan Sato, representative of Grossberg United Company,He has a master's degree in management engineering in Graduate School of Qingying University.He joined Tokyo Electronics in 1985.He has served as a sales engineer, joined the data exploration (now Gartner) in 1992, and served as a senior industry analyst in the semiconductor industry analysis department. He joined Fujitsu in 2004 as the general manager and general manager and general manager of the Department of Management Strategy, and participated in the spin -off of the semiconductor department.He joined in 2010iSupply(Now OMDIA), responsible for investigation and analysis of semiconductor and secondary batteries.In 2017, he founded Groasberg's joint company to be responsible for research and consultation.The following is the compilation of the full text：《Why does the semiconductor enterprise with excess inventory, a car company that is distressed by insufficient semiconductor, does it exist at the same time?》
Before, I have written that the short -semiconductor shortage is expected to end in the first half of 2023, and after that, there may be excess inventory problems caused by pseudo -demand.At present, the semiconductor market is fully depressed, and the phenomenon of the storage market is particularly declining due to excessive demand.On the other hand, the semiconductor shortage in the automotive field is still continuing.Toyota's popular models, such as Prius, take 1 and a half years from ordering to delivery.Semiconductor products have both surplus and shortage. The situation where two extremes occur at the same time are very rare.This time, I will analyze the status quo while organizing the market in the classification of the product.
01
Global semiconductor market
A negative growth has occurred for 7 consecutive months
WSTS(WorldOrganization of Boundary Semiconductor Trade Statistics)Data show that the global semiconductor market in January 2023 decreased by 20.1%year -on -year, which was worse than the year -on -year decrease in December 2022.It has been negative growth for seven consecutive months since July 2022, and has double -digit negative growth in three consecutive months since November 2022.In particular, the storage market is 58.6%year -on -year in January 2023, compared with 46.2%year -on -year performance in December 2022, the situation has worsen.Although these data are calculated at the amount, it is actually declining as the quantity.Data data in January 2023 showed thatDRAM and NAND decreased by about 40% compared with the same period last year.EssenceIn other words, due to the excess supply capacity, memory manufacturers can only bear from & quot; undertake excess inventory & quot; and & quot; response price reduction requirements & quot; choose one.However, although reports about the decline in the storage unit price are increasing, the decline is not very large.I predict,The subsequent decline should be accelerated.The reason why the storage market is so serious is that PC and smartphones have poor demand, plus the GAFA, including GAFA（Google、Apple、Faceboo、Amazon）The performance of large IT suppliers, including, worsen.Beginning in early 2021, the shortage of semiconductors received widespread attention as social problems. At that time, the shortage was MCU, analog, and separate devices that did not require the most cutting -edge semiconductor products.So, what is the shortage of these storage?
02
From scarcity to surplus?
Throughout the MCU market, it performed strongly in January 2023, surpassing the increase of 21.9%in the same month last year and the increase of 14.8%in December 2022.In particular, the car MCU, sales in January 2023 increased by 28.2%, and increased by 25.8%in December 2022.The decline of semiconductor seems to have & quot; blowing & quot;.However, the shortage of shortage seems to be over, and the extended delivery time is returning to normal.The simulation market decreased by 4.8%year -on -year in January 2023, and from 4.4%in December 2022 decreased to negative growth.Observer carefully, the GMII market has changed from 8.1%in January 2023 and 3.1%in December 2022 to negative. HoweverMarch 36.4%increase.Like the MCU of the car, the shortage of the car simulation chip seems to be over, but the situation of the universal simulation chip may be changing from shortage to excess.Literally, the general simulation chip is widely used in various applications. When the global new crown epidemic erupts, users are scattered all over the world.Surgery.In terms of cars, the smart key is equipped with a certain general analog chip, and this simulation chip is still in short supply.The reason for the shortage may be the growth of demand, but because the general simulation chip has multiple applications in the car, the possibility of the shortage caused by the increase in temporary demand will not be ruled out.We need to observe for a period of development.
03
Power device shortage
The key to improving is Yingfei LingThe separate device market increased by 0.6%year -on -year in January 2023, lower than 4.8%in December 2022.After careful observation, a small signal transistor for current control of less than 1W decreased by 31.5%in January 2023, less than 25.6%in December 2022; the power transistor for 1W or more used for current control was in January 2023 in January 2023It rose 13.9%, not as 16.1%in December 2022, but the performance was still strong.Division devices are semiconductor with strong universalability, and they have a wide range of applications, so they are still products that are prone to temporary needs.In 2021, when the demand of a small signal crystal pipe surged, some people said that the demand for all applications was increasing, which seemed to be an unusual situation & quot;.In fact, this is a typical phenomenon of temporary demand expansion. The decline of the crystal-related transistor-related transistor market from December 2022 is estimated to be the result of this temporary demand disappearance.On the other hand, power transistors are also used in various applications, but due to the electrification of automobiles and vehicle demand, this is different from small signal transistors.In other words, actual demand is increasing, not false needs.The delivery period of hybrid vehicles is more than the captain of the gasoline vehicle. From this status quo, it can also be inferred that the battle for power transistors is began.There is no doubt that the purchase of power transistors has become a bottleneck for automobile manufacturers.Yingfei Ling has the highest market share in the industry. However, the 12 -inch wafer production line for power transistors was originally planned to start production from 2021, but it did not start until 2022.This is probably the biggest reason for insufficient power transistors.The author expects that as the production line begins to mass production, the supply problem will be greatly improved.
04
It will end in the first half of 2023
In recent years, there have been few good news of macroeconomic trends, the demand for electronic equipment is sluggish, and the demand for semiconductor demand is also a natural phenomenon.The automotive industry should naturally be adversely affected, but at the moment, various car manufacturers are in the expense of semiconductor, and they cannot create.As mentioned earlier, I expect this shortage to end in the first half of 2023.However, I have never seen such a strange phenomenon. The semiconductor is declining, but there is still a shortage of shortage. I think many people participating in it are very confused.In the automotive industry, CASE(Connected network connection, Autonomous intelligence, shared & amp; service sharing, Electric electrification)Major changes are changing the business model of automakers and the distribution of power of players, and a new supply chain is about to be formed.The semiconductor industry has also participated in this change in large quantities. There is no doubt that the reality of the semiconductor in the vehicle will also undergo major changes.Perhaps it is just the beginning, such a moment.In order to welcome the huge changes in the future,Each participating company needs to formulate a strategy of using Case as a weapon, rather than being controlled by Case.
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