Five Major Trends In The Chip Semiconductor Industry

Recently artificial intelligence, especially the ChatGPT fire, when people focus on these things, one problem has been ignored by everyone, that isComputingThat is to support the software and hardware behind artificial intelligence.Starting from ChatGPT's multiple downside events, the chip semiconductor of supporting computing power has been paid attention to. Although the 3C supplies of the computer have not been fully recovered, the computer's 3C supplies have not been fully recovered, but they have gradually balanced on the road to active de -inventory.

This article combines these two things to talk about the future industrial trend forecast of the chip industry.

Starting from the recent joint blockade of Chinese chips, as the semiconductor industry has matured and the competition links have developed drama, the global semiconductor industry policy has also entered a dense area. The policy mainly focuses on strengthening its own supply chain and strengthening R & D maintenance.The United States will maintain technological advantages and attract global chip manufacturing leaders in the United States. The "Chip and Science Act" plan passed in 2022 will provide about $ 52.7 billion in funding support to the semiconductor industry in the next five years, and provide enterprises with a value of 24 billion yuan worth of.The US dollar investment tax is exempted; it provides support of about $ 200 billion in scientific research funding.In addition, the United States joined the Chinese guardrail clauses and prohibited companies that obtain federal funds to significantly increase their production chips in China.The European side has stepped up advanced technology breakthroughs, seized the global market share, and invested more than 43 billion euros of public and private funds to the semiconductor industry.Among them, 11 billion euros will be used to strengthen existing research, development and innovation.

From the long -term goal, the market share of the European semiconductor in 2030 increased from 9%in 2021 to 20%.Japan increased its fiscal budget and improved equipment subsidies.That is to say, as long as the production plan proposed by the enterprise meets the conditions for continuous production for more than 10 years, and when the supply and demand is tight, it can increase production response and other conditions. The highest subsidy will be obtained by half of the equipment cost.In addition, Japan's fiscal year budget amendment shows that about 774 billion yen (about 42.3 billion yuan) in the semiconductor industry.

Chiclet will meet the internal interconnection technology of DIE-TO-DIE that meets specific functions to achieve system packaging of multiple module chips and underlying basic chips to achieve an IP reuse of a new situation.Chiclet is not only the key to the Moore era after the continuation, but also one of the solutions for the advanced process of domestic layout. It will become the main line of the development of the future industry: From the perspective of advantages, Chiplet can greatly increase the yield of large chips.The huge operational needs of the other aspects have soared the number of chip transistors, the area of the chip has continued to increase, and the loss caused by the inherent adverse rate increases.And Chiplet can cut into an independent small chip to effectively improve the yield and reduce the cost growth brought by the adverse rate.In addition, it can also reduce the complexity and design cost of design. If large -scale SOC decomposes different modules into core grains according to different modules, it can be reused in different chip products.This can greatly reduce the difficulty and cost of design, and it is conducive to the iteration of subsequent products, and accelerate the listing cycle of the product.And Chiclet is an important solution for domestic breakthrough technical blockade and layout of advanced processes.

The government subsidies that just mentioned the "American Chip and Science Act" attracted chip companies to the United States and the clauses to join the Chinese guardrails to restrict US -Enterprise investment in China. They all marked that the semiconductor industry will change from global division and shift to anti -globalization.China's internal cycle has gradually begun to establish its own chip system, use precise water release to stimulate chip companies to grow, and use science and innovation boards to support high -quality chip companies to list. From the perspective of consumption, China is currently the largest chip consumer market. There will be no major changes in the year. The semiconductor industry in my country is not strong. Almost every link of the semiconductor industry chain has Chinese companies, but the overall is backward.Due to the lack of in -depth connection between Chinese companies in the industrial chain, the progress of a single enterprise is easily affected by US sanctions.Therefore, cultivating a good industrial ecology, realizing full independent manufacturing, opening up internal circulation, and relying on domestic market advantages to achieve continuous upgrading of the semiconductor industry chain. Therefore, once the industrial chain is improved, it marks that the internal cycle is about to begin.

The intelligent process of tram can be divided into two lines of smart cockpit and intelligent driving.After the three-stage development of smart cockpies, the next 3-5 years will become the main battlefield of tram.Starting with the 7 -inch touch screen in the seventh -generation Buick Riviera in 1986, the first car with touch screen technology in history was born, and the intelligent process of the seat was opened.Tesla Models innovatively adopts a large -scale vehicle display to cancel most of the mechanical buttons, marking that smart cockpies enter the era of electronicization.The ideal L9 pioneered intelligent interactive mode, using five large screens, namely HUD+safe driving interactive screen+central control screen+co -driving screen+rear cabin entertainment screen, and has 6 -tone zones, 3DTOF sensors, and 21 speakers to achieve 3D interactive interactive interactive interactiveSince then, smart cockpit development focuses on the intelligent experience of human -computer interaction.With the breakthrough of human -machine interaction and cockpit perception technology, traditional auto companies and new forces of car manufacturing have begun to create a new generation of smart cockpit with ideal L9 as the typical representative. Through the integration of soft and hardware of the cabin, vision, hearing, touch, and smell are realizedWait for comprehensive interaction to provide passengers with a more comfortable, convenient, and intelligent travel experience, forming product differentiation and enhancing competitiveness.It is expected that in the next 3-5 years, the field of intelligent cockpit will be the focus of competition in the process of intelligence in tram.In the short term, the main reason why smart driving cannot be the focus of the development of smart trams is the lack of chip foundry: although my country has the design ability and ability of advanced processing and testing, but the level of advancement of advanced process is backward, and secondly lacks the grasp of advanced processes. Chip foundry, the supply of high -performance chips is constrained, and there is a lack of algorithm computing power: Although domestic chip manufacturers represented by the horizon and Hisilicon have a great computing advantage, overall The computing power requirements for explosive growth.

In the semiconductor research framework, the inventory cycle in the short term, the innovative cycle in the middle period, and long -term domestic alternative.The typical inventory cycle can be divided into four stages: active de -inventory (volume and price falls): The capacity of the wafer plant is too much, and the chip inventory of the entire industry has reached a high point.Inventory, consumer chips show a state of volume and price fall.Passive destocking (quantitative decline/liter): As the demand recovers, the inventory continues to decrease, the price is maintained, and then gradually rose to the normal profit line level.Active replenishment of inventory (rising volume and price): The increase in demand is higher than the supply growth, the inventory continues to decline, the supply and demand balance after the inventory is completed, the manufacturer expands the supply, enters the replenishment stage, the volume and price rises, and it is in the best profit.Passive replenishment (quantitative price increase/fall): demand is relatively stable, and in order to cope with possible future needs, manufacturers continue to increase production and have supply inertia, resulting in excess supply side capacity.Historically, active replenishment (21Q1 ~ 21Q3): Economic stimulus superimposed online economic rise, driving the demand for hardware such as computers, television, video conferences, and game consoles to increase significantly; at the same timePrice.Passive replenishment (21Q4 ~ 22Q3): Global chip demand is gradually weakening, mainly due to the unfavorable affected by the three major markets -European and Ukraine has a serious economic recession due to Russia and Ukraine.The influence of the prosperity, the downstream market demand is under pressure.Demand tightening directly leads to the beginning of advanced technology and consumption side.At this stage, major wafer factories have increased the capital expenditure of advanced processes, and the supply side continues to increase. The supply is too demand.Active destocking (22Q4 ~ 23Q2): The capacity of the wafer plant is overcapacity, and the consumer chip supply is too required, so the price cuts to reduce the inventory, the supply is tightened, and the overall performance of the industry has fallen.At present, it is expected that (23Q3 ~ 23Q4) to enter passive de -inventory is expected to recover with the global economy, mobile phone, smart home appliances, smart cars and other downstream consumer electronics market demand recovery, chip inventory continues to exfoliate, the price is stable, and the active supplementary inventory 24In the first quarter of the year, the demand -side growth driver supply -side production capacity was gradually released, and the mismatch of supply and demand may increase the catalytic price. It is expected that consumer semiconductors will enter the upward channel with volume prices in 2024.Therefore, the worst phase of the semiconductor sector has passed. According to historical laws, the stock price will respond to the inventory turning point and price turning point. Look at the inventory turning point of multiple consumer chips and the domestic semiconductor domesticization turnover market.