People have always hoped that lasting memory will bring a computing paradigm change, but this is unlikely to happen soon.At a nearby online seminar, industry insiders of the Storage Network Industry Association (SNIA) said that new technology will replace existing memory technologies such as DRAM, but it may not appear before the end of this decade.
Sina's ARTHUR SAINIO, Tom Coughlin, and Jim Handy said when answering the media and industry observers, saying that lasting memory has matched the speed reached by modern DRAM technology, SK Hynix and Micron's iron electric body proves this.However, they cannot directly answer which emerging memory technology will eventually replace the client PC and DRAM in the server.
Although iron electricityMemoryIt is famous for its fast writing cycle, but it cannot guarantee that it will eventually take advantage.This is because many new memory technologies such as MRAM, FERAM and RERAM are competing to replace existing standards such as SRAM, NOR flash memory and DRAM.
It is said that MRAM has a significant advantage over competitors because its reading speed may be comparable to DRAM speed in the near future.New technologies such as spin -rail torque and pressure control magnetic opposite sex have also reduced the delay of MRAM, making it one of the main candidate technologies that may replace DRAM one day.
However, a major obstacle from DRAM to long -lasting memory is manufacturing costs.Although DRAM's production cost is relatively low, persistent memory may take years to become competitive in terms of price.
Another problem that hinders the adoption of durable memory is that it currently uses NOR flash memory and SRAM interface rather than DDR.However, this situation may change in the future, because any memory technology has no typebusTightly coupling nature.
Streaming memory, as the name suggests, even if there is nopower supplyIt can also be retained, which makes it a huge asset in certain applications.However, they believe that although its benefits are obvious, there are still many obstacles in the near future.As far as the current situation is concerned, we may not transition to new technology before the early 2030s, but may be much later.
The next generation of DRAM, what do you pay attention to?
During the cold winter of the memory market, except for artificial intelligence servers and carselectronicIn addition to some specific applications, the demand for DRAM is still weak.In particular, the rise of the generating AI application (such as ChatGPT) since the end of 2022 has promoted the needs of the data center market for high -speed memory technology (ie, DDR5 DRAM and high -band wide memory (HBM)).
In order to use the new wave of AI and accelerate the recovery of the market, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron began to transfer more wafer capacity to seize the opportunity of HBM, resulting in a slowdown in the overall Bit production and accelerating the change of supply to non -HBM products.EssenceIt is estimated that by 2024, the total HBM wafer production will increase by more than 100% year -on -year to about 150 kWPM.
Driven by the strong needs of artificial intelligence computing, the growth of HBM will largely exceed the entire DRAM market.After the impressive growth (year-on-year increase of 93%) in 2023, HBM Bit is expected to be in 2024 (year-on-year increase of 147%) and the next five years (the compound annual growth rate is about 45%23-29 23-29) Continue to grow strongly; in contrast, the CAGR23-29 of the data center DRAM bit is about 25%.
In terms of income, the HBM market has the potential to increase from approximately US $ 2.7 billion in 2022 to about $ 14 billion in 2024, which is equivalent to about 3%and about 19%of DRAM's overall revenue.
　Future DRAM technology
The 4F2 DRAM is currently developing. Compared with the existing 6F2 structure, the chip area is reduced by about 30%, and there is no need to use a smaller light signal node.In addition, after introducing 4F2 in 2027, the CMOS key array (CBA) DRAM architecture will be used. The peripheral circuit and memory array are processed on different wafer, and then stacked together by the mixing key between the wafers.
HBM also requires mixed keys to continue to improve memory bandwidth and power efficiency, and limit the thickness of the HBM stack.We expect that the mixing key will be adopted from the HBM4 generation (~ 2026). The generation will use 16 DRAM chips per stack, and the interface width will be doubled to 2,048 bits.
Although it is still looking for the development path, a single 3D DRAM is an important long -term expansion solution.Many of the key aspects of 3D-DRAM development are unclear, and the forward strategy has not yet been determined.According to technical papers and applications, DRAM is exploring many possible ways to implement a single 3D-DRAM, including levelCapacitorThe 1T-1C unit, as well as electrical container options, such as gain units (2T0C) or 1T-DRAM (eg, float-based effects).The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM will trigger major changes in the DRAM industry, which can essentially imitate the history of 3D NAND.Our current market model assumes that the 3D DRAM will be listed around 2030, and it takes about five years to reach 10 MWPY (38%of the DRAM wafer production in 2035).
　The dispute between HBM leadership will be upgraded
Since 2013, SK Hynix has been the pioneer of HBM development and commercialization. At present, it has led the HBM market with about 55% of its income share, followed by Samsung, accounting for about 41%.Micron was obviously absent from HBM before 2020.As a latecomer of the HBM business, this American company needs to shorten the time of listing. To this end, they will skip the HBM3 generation and directly launch HBM3E products (also known as HBM3 Gen2)).
Advanced packaging technology for DRAM logic integration and DRAM micro -reduction replacement traditional photocald micro -shrinking technology will become the focus of Chinese enterprises in R & D activities in the next few years.These channels are currently open -there is no major obstacle caused by commercial restrictions at this stage -China will follow these channels and develop high -performance artificial intelligence chips without using restricted cutting -edge equipment.*By using supermore solutions to combine logic and storage, China will continue to compete for technical domineering status in various fields. The key areas are artificial intelligence computing.